Rise in employment in the amount of the fall in unemployment rates could put pressure on the Fed in terms of normalization approach to monetary policy . However, this may be insufficient due to a reluctance to move away from Janet Yellen policy of zero interest rates .Prediction: " Bullish " script argumentsThe number of employed in the U.S. economy from ADP in April
Forecast : 210,000
Result: 220,000
Level of consumption in the private sector , one - quarter
Forecast : 2.0%
Result: 3.0%
Indicator in small business optimism from NFIB March
Forecast : 92.5
Result: 93.4
Growth performance of the private sector plus the improving sentiment in the business environment can stimulate the growth of employment . Yield of stronger -than-expected data can cause a rollback EUR / USD because of improving fundamentals prospects for the U.S. economy.
Prediction: "Bear " scenario , the arguments
Change in gross domestic product for the 1st quarter
Forecast : 1.2%
Result: 0.1 %
The number of building permits for March, m / m
Forecast : -0.4 %
Subtotal: -2.4%
Producer price index for the euro area in March , g / g
Forecast : 1.1%
Total: 1.4%
Increase in purchase price in the amount of the prolonged downturn in the real economy may limit the performance of employment in the business environment . Deterioration in the level of employment is with / x can strengthen "bearish" momentum against the U.S. currency , as it will affect expectations about rising interest rates.
Scenarios considering trading analysis
If the number of employed will grow in line with expectations , and the unemployment rate drops to 6.6 % , the dollar will play a news rising against the euro.
On the EUR / USD chart formed a red candle . In this case, traders will have a chance to open a position to sell the euro . Stop at the first place or better at swing high , or at a sufficient distance from the entrance. The ratio of risk to profit - at least one to one. Stop at the second part of the position recommended to make to break even immediately after the goal in the first position.
If the April statistics do not justify hopes will develop "bearish" scenario for the dollar . On the chart of the currency pair will be formed green candle . Then it is recommended to use a script similar to the above, but to open a position to buy euros.
Possible goals for the movement
- RSI can not save "bearish" pulse ;
- Intermediate resistance : 1,3960-70 ;
- Interim Support: 1,3650-1,3660 .