Agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the ratings of Russian . The reason - the possible deterioration of access to foreign financing. The downgrade caused further collapse of stock indices and exchange rate. Solution Standard & Poor's partly politically motivated. But anyway , this may be one of the stages of a long and gradual weaning Russia from global financial flows .Rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the sovereign rating of Russia in foreign currency to BBB- from BBB, long-term local currency rating to BBB also downgraded to BBB +.
According to the agency , sovereign downgrade due to " risk of significant deterioration in external financing ", rating outlook - negative .A month ago, the major rating agencies have revised its outlook on Russia to negative from stable due to the fact that the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators superimposed risk of sanctions the West. The revision meant that these organizations in the future should consider again the "case of Russia" and decide whether or not to lower the rating itself . But it could happen within a year or two . Perhaps rapidly unfolding crisis of Ukraine makes Standard & Poor's in a hurry."I am somewhat surprised - recognized chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova . - Because oil prices are high , the growth rate in the first quarter were not so low . Apparently , today's decision was made in anticipation of further deterioration of the economic situation. "" There is nothing surprising in making such a decision is not, as it suggested itself - explain analysts of " Rick -Trust . " - After the U.S. and the EU imposed sanctions on a number of high-ranking Russian officials and the commercial banks, it became clear that the lever in the rating agencies face sooner or later will be involved . "Authorities meanwhile also continue to blame the international rating agency of political bias , in connection with what is already there were plans to create a "proper" agency in defiance of " the big three » (Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's). This has its own logic :rating downgrades on the basis of a possible reduction in the inflow of overseas investment by itself automatically reduces this influx ,many investment funds set limits on investments in individual securities and markets as a whole , depending on how they otreytingovany . Downgrade on stage at once makes the appropriate tool riskier investments and reduced it .About the same effect , but not automatic , and manually provide , for example , advising U.S. officials more carefully weigh the risks of investing in Russia before the upcoming economic sanctions. As previously reported, " Times" conducted such conversations began a couple of weeks ago with the managers of large investment funds in the U.S., which was recorded after the outflow of short-term investments from Russia ( $ 228 million for two weeks) , replaced a few weeks inflows ( in the aggregate more than $ 0.5 billion).Such "voluntary- compulsory " behavior of private investors only worsens the situation. "It's very difficult to assess the scope of the problems - said Orlov. - The biggest risk - we can see that foreign banks will gradually close its counterparty limits in Russia. That is such a gradual process will reduce its activities in the Russian market . Big questions to which strategy will be private investors and foreign companies. This process is very marketable . Each company or bank now operates at its discretion. Some banks are now saying that they are willing to continue to work in Russia , in a month , maybe change their minds . "However, the Russian authorities have not denied the real economic problems. Previously, financial and economic agencies are already talking about the possibility of a recession. "It is clear that this kind of politically motivated decision , and partly , perhaps a reaction to what the actual deterioration of the macroeconomic situation ," - commented today downgrades Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev .Downgrade supported the process of the sale of the asset pool Russia , observed all this week .In the first minutes of trading today on the news indexes lost more than 1.5%. By 13.00 the fall was 0.65 % and the MICEX index fell to 1292.44 points. "In connection with this news , we expect a decline in the Russian stock market to 1270 on the MICEX index " - says analyst " Veles Capital " Alexander Kostjukov . " It is possible that from day to day , the U.S. government will announce additional economic sanctions against Russia - the expert adds Forex4You Ivan Kivin . - It could also lead to new sales on the Russian stock market . " Large investors who acquired shares in the March decline, leave, and a new local minimum on the MICEX index is now below 1250 points , according to IR " Rick -Trust ."Could not resist and the ruble .By 11.30 contracts ' dollar-ruble " " tomorrow " and, accordingly, the official rate of the Central Bank of the future rose 25 kopecks . , To 35.93 rubles. / $ . Euro rose by 38 kopecks . relative to today's official rate to 49.70 rubles . / €." This week the geopolitical tensions , which continues to grow , retain pressure on the ruble - sure bank trader " Globex " Artem Gites . - The political factor in the form of a tough stance against the U.S. and Russia only adds to the already negative sentiment . Predict exchange rates in the current geopolitical and economic situation is difficult , since any action politicians can have a strong impact on exchange rates. Forecast for next week : the dollar 35,90-36,50 rubles / $ 49,60-50,20 euro rub . / € »."Saving the negative rating outlook reflects the likelihood of loss of Russian investment grade rating in the next two years , if these risks affect the creditworthiness of the country stronger than expected Agency at the moment " - analysts warn Raiffeisenbank .Overall downgrades Russia may start a gradual , creeping and therefore more unpleasant process transforming the country into a financial pariah. And not only in official sanctions." Great risk of undeclared sanctions in addition to those that may appear officially in the near future - says Orlov. - Not that we all know sanctions in the coming weeks or months , andit will be a gradual process of folding the foreign presence in the Russian market . "" There is a feeling that we are entering into a long-term trend that will be characterized by sustained capital outflows , at even higher levels than in the previous five years , a gradual increase in interest rates, and some structural changes of all financial flows -Orlov concludes .
According to the agency , sovereign downgrade due to " risk of significant deterioration in external financing ", rating outlook - negative .A month ago, the major rating agencies have revised its outlook on Russia to negative from stable due to the fact that the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators superimposed risk of sanctions the West. The revision meant that these organizations in the future should consider again the "case of Russia" and decide whether or not to lower the rating itself . But it could happen within a year or two . Perhaps rapidly unfolding crisis of Ukraine makes Standard & Poor's in a hurry."I am somewhat surprised - recognized chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova . - Because oil prices are high , the growth rate in the first quarter were not so low . Apparently , today's decision was made in anticipation of further deterioration of the economic situation. "" There is nothing surprising in making such a decision is not, as it suggested itself - explain analysts of " Rick -Trust . " - After the U.S. and the EU imposed sanctions on a number of high-ranking Russian officials and the commercial banks, it became clear that the lever in the rating agencies face sooner or later will be involved . "Authorities meanwhile also continue to blame the international rating agency of political bias , in connection with what is already there were plans to create a "proper" agency in defiance of " the big three » (Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's). This has its own logic :rating downgrades on the basis of a possible reduction in the inflow of overseas investment by itself automatically reduces this influx ,many investment funds set limits on investments in individual securities and markets as a whole , depending on how they otreytingovany . Downgrade on stage at once makes the appropriate tool riskier investments and reduced it .About the same effect , but not automatic , and manually provide , for example , advising U.S. officials more carefully weigh the risks of investing in Russia before the upcoming economic sanctions. As previously reported, " Times" conducted such conversations began a couple of weeks ago with the managers of large investment funds in the U.S., which was recorded after the outflow of short-term investments from Russia ( $ 228 million for two weeks) , replaced a few weeks inflows ( in the aggregate more than $ 0.5 billion).Such "voluntary- compulsory " behavior of private investors only worsens the situation. "It's very difficult to assess the scope of the problems - said Orlov. - The biggest risk - we can see that foreign banks will gradually close its counterparty limits in Russia. That is such a gradual process will reduce its activities in the Russian market . Big questions to which strategy will be private investors and foreign companies. This process is very marketable . Each company or bank now operates at its discretion. Some banks are now saying that they are willing to continue to work in Russia , in a month , maybe change their minds . "However, the Russian authorities have not denied the real economic problems. Previously, financial and economic agencies are already talking about the possibility of a recession. "It is clear that this kind of politically motivated decision , and partly , perhaps a reaction to what the actual deterioration of the macroeconomic situation ," - commented today downgrades Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev .Downgrade supported the process of the sale of the asset pool Russia , observed all this week .In the first minutes of trading today on the news indexes lost more than 1.5%. By 13.00 the fall was 0.65 % and the MICEX index fell to 1292.44 points. "In connection with this news , we expect a decline in the Russian stock market to 1270 on the MICEX index " - says analyst " Veles Capital " Alexander Kostjukov . " It is possible that from day to day , the U.S. government will announce additional economic sanctions against Russia - the expert adds Forex4You Ivan Kivin . - It could also lead to new sales on the Russian stock market . " Large investors who acquired shares in the March decline, leave, and a new local minimum on the MICEX index is now below 1250 points , according to IR " Rick -Trust ."Could not resist and the ruble .By 11.30 contracts ' dollar-ruble " " tomorrow " and, accordingly, the official rate of the Central Bank of the future rose 25 kopecks . , To 35.93 rubles. / $ . Euro rose by 38 kopecks . relative to today's official rate to 49.70 rubles . / €." This week the geopolitical tensions , which continues to grow , retain pressure on the ruble - sure bank trader " Globex " Artem Gites . - The political factor in the form of a tough stance against the U.S. and Russia only adds to the already negative sentiment . Predict exchange rates in the current geopolitical and economic situation is difficult , since any action politicians can have a strong impact on exchange rates. Forecast for next week : the dollar 35,90-36,50 rubles / $ 49,60-50,20 euro rub . / € »."Saving the negative rating outlook reflects the likelihood of loss of Russian investment grade rating in the next two years , if these risks affect the creditworthiness of the country stronger than expected Agency at the moment " - analysts warn Raiffeisenbank .Overall downgrades Russia may start a gradual , creeping and therefore more unpleasant process transforming the country into a financial pariah. And not only in official sanctions." Great risk of undeclared sanctions in addition to those that may appear officially in the near future - says Orlov. - Not that we all know sanctions in the coming weeks or months , andit will be a gradual process of folding the foreign presence in the Russian market . "" There is a feeling that we are entering into a long-term trend that will be characterized by sustained capital outflows , at even higher levels than in the previous five years , a gradual increase in interest rates, and some structural changes of all financial flows -Orlov concludes .